“Our latest Index shows the immense challenges facing British manufacturing, with persistent closures underscoring just how tough the trading environment has become.
“However, the story is not one of uniform decline. We’re seeing remarkable resilience and growth in sectors such as real estate, education, health, and transportation, industries that have managed not only to withstand economic turbulence but to seize new opportunities amid uncertainty.
“At Cynergy Bank, we are committed to providing the financial expertise and tailored solutions to help UK businesses not only survive, but thrive.”
The British manufacturing sector is in the grip of a prolonged crisis, impacted by surging energy prices and global uncertainty. Cynergy Bank’s latest Business Births and Deaths Index draws on the latest ONS data for April to June 2025 to paint a picture of the nation's economic health.
In the second quarter of 2025, just 2,835 new manufacturing businesses launched, down from 3,375 in Q1 and below the 3,135 recorded at the same time last year.
The start of the quarter was marked by President Trump’s "Liberation Day" and the resulting tariff turmoil likely weighed heavily on business confidence.
The second quarter of 2025 also saw 3,225 manufacturing businesses close their doors, bringing the sector’s Cynergy Bank's Business Health Score* down to 0.88.
Manufacturing closures have outpaced new openings for more than four years, with the sector steadily shrinking since the first quarter of 2021. In that time, the UK has seen a net loss of 13,520 manufacturers, contracting approximately eight per cent from 170,000 manufacturing businesses in 2021.**
The research found a net job loss of 2,001 in the second quarter of 2025, as more jobs vanished with closures than were created by startups, in the latest sign that the government’s tax rises, a higher minimum wage and the US trade war are hitting the jobs market.
Firms shutting down now have the highest-ever*** average turnover, of £310,000**** and employ more people per company than before (2.97), indicating that closures are increasingly impacting larger businesses.
Meanwhile, the average start-up now employs just 2.79 people, among the lowest on record, down from 3.5 in 2017.
Despite the broader economic picture, several industries are flourishing and continue to buck the trend:
Real Estate continues to expand, with a score of 1.39. Strong and resilient property demand makes real estate a stable and attractive investment option. Moreover, government ambitions to deliver new homes, reform planning, and invest in social housing create opportunities for start-ups and smaller businesses in the sector.
Education holds steady with a strong 1.38, encompassing everything from preschools to specialist training. This is likely due to increased public funding, higher demand and demographic trends.
Health and Social Care posts a healthy 1.21, buoyed by increased private sector activity and innovation as the NHS faces ongoing pressure.
Transportation has achieved a Health Score of 1.07, its highest since Q4 2021, steadily improving every quarter over the past year, possibly due to higher demand as fewer people work from home.
Regional disparities
London has outperformed the rest of the country with a score of 1.16 in Q2 of 2025, closely followed by the North East at 1.10. Despite scoring highly in this quarter, both regions have seen a decline since Q1, when they scored 1.19 and 1.20 respectively.
In contrast, Northern Ireland has experienced the most significant business closures, with a score of 0.87, closely followed by Wales at 0.94.
Nick Fahy
Chief Executive, Cynergy Bank
Annual regional data table
The below data table shows the annual Cynergy Bank Regional Health Scores for 2024-2021.
Region | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
UK | 1.03 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 1.03 |
England | 1.04 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 1.04 |
North East | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.09 |
North West | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
Yorkshire and Humber | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.02 | 1.07 |
East Midlands | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 1.01 |
West Midlands | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 1.12 |
East | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.99 |
London | 1.12 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
South East | 1.02 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.93 |
South West | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.03 |
Wales | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.95 |
Scotland | 1.02 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.88 |
Northern Ireland | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 1.10 |
Methodology
Cynergy Bank’s report uses ONS quarterly data across 16 business sectors, available here: Business demography, quarterly, UK - Office for National Statistics . Available ONS data goes as far back as 2017.
Q2 2025 data was published on 24 July 2025. Business “births” and “deaths” are terms used by ONS. Strictly, these are enterprises added to, and removed from, the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR), respectively. The IDBR is a comprehensive list of UK businesses used by government for statistical purposes.
Notes and definitions
* Cynergy Bank’s Business Health Score divides the number of business births by the number of business deaths in any given industry to give a snapshot of overall sector health. For example, a score of 1.30 means for every one business going bust 1.3 new businesses are being created. Scores below 1 indicate more businesses are closing than being formed and the industry is in decline.
** Source: Business demography, UK ONS 2021.pdf Source figures are rounded to nearest thousand
***Available ONS data goes as far back as 2017: Business demography, quarterly, UK - Office for National Statistics
**** ONS figures on closures were revised in Q2 resulting in a lower average turnover figure in Q1 than reported in Cynergy Bank’s last Births and Deaths Index. Q2 2025 now has the highest average turnover of closing businesses since 2017
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